Doug Green

It's week two of trade blogging, Monday morning. I'm expecting a slow morning: (a) Monday's are normally slow, (b) last week was slow, (c) and there's no news coming out this morning to drive the market.

1. I checked charts around 7am, short term we're mixed, but the long term 1152 is in a solid downtrend and possibly setting up for an A-B, mx, macd, and triggers all looking good. I'll be watching for an A near the midband, followed by a potential B. Waiting...
2. At 8:15am an A formed on the 1152 with a B projection just below the big triggers. This is not a good setup though because the A was too high, it came with macd divergence, and on the short term charts the small triggers are coming through the big triggers. I expect for this to continue up another point or so and to hit the upper balance line. I'm watching for an X and a potential short at the 1:1 major at 1148.25. If the B succeeds I'll look for the F. Waiting...
3. By 9:20am, ten minutes before the open, the B short formed on the 1152 at the right place, but then went sideways; as I noted above I wasn't going to take this B. What looks interesting now though, is we have a B on the 233, the small triggers on the 1152 have crossed up, the 288 big triggers have crossed long, the 233/288 mx is long, and the 233/288 macd is moving long. Because the A-B sequence on the 1152 was a little off, because of all the above, because I think someone is moving us long based on last week's macd divergence and move counter to news, and because it's a slow day indicating to use the short term charts over the long term charts, my bias is now long. But I don't see any trades, so waiting...
4. Choppy at the open, narrow two point range since 8am, up and down with no follow through, more macd divergence on 1152, have BB's on 233 and 1152, each showing different expectations. I typically avoid BB's, but we have one on the 1152 and could be headed down. We need an X to reset trend. Waiting...
5. At 9:37am we got a lower X on both short term charts, the X occurred a little below a 1:1, had the X occurred at the 1:1 I'd be inclined to golong, but I don't feel that strong about my long bias, so waiting, maybe we'll get an A-B on the short term charts...
6. At 9:40am we got an A but came right back down for an X. I'm going back to having no bias.
7. By 9:50am the long term charts are setting up nicely for short, for a potential A-B on the 7500 or an F on the 1152. The B and C on the 1152 happened right where they should of. The F is projected at 1144.50, which really isn't a great area, well below the big triggers. Waiting for the A on the 7500 to see if the B projection there looks any better...
8. By 10am we did get an F on the 1152, but it was lower than I expected. We still don't have an A on the 7500. Back to trying to trade the short term charts, but nothing happening there either. I think I'm going to call it a day. Tough morning, no trades. Bias is/was short, but wasn't able to catch it.